Saturday, April 4, 2020

On Scarcity

My last post looked at rarity- the varying rarity levels of Magic cards and how their distribution in sets has changed over the years.  Today, we're looking at scarcity.

Booster boxes of older releases are often very expensive- you'll pay much more than 'sticker price'.  But if you look at buying single cards from those same older releases, they're often reasonably priced.  Let's look at Seventh Edition, a core set released in 2001.
A booster box of Seventh Edition
Some quick Internet searching reveals that the average Seventh Edition booster box price is - wait for it- $1500.  (MTGGoldfish is a great site for prices- it lists it as $1699!) But then look at the cost of singles (again, MTGGoldfish is a good resource).  You could buy the entire set for $316, and only four cards are going for more than $10 each.  The cards from that set are not great, overall, which is why the singles aren't expensive.  So why is the booster box so crazily priced?  It's this idea of scarcity.

Wizards prints a set number of booster boxes per set.  Over time, those boxes are purchased, packs opened, and single cards kept, re-sold, or (shudder) thrown away.  If you want to buy a booster box of an older set, you're not paying a mint for the cards- you're paying for the fact that they're still in their original packaging.  That's it.  Over the years, the unopened booster boxes (and even booster packs) have dwindled as people purchased and opened more and more of set [X].

From the first MTGGoldfish link I provided above, you can look at the booster box prices (check the 'Sealed Product' section for each expansion) and find that you'll typically pay at least $400 for a box of one of the older sets.  Again, not because the cards are super-powerful: it's just because there are so few still available in that original packaging.

(Aside: some of the very first sets- whose booster boxes will set you back 5 figures- do have individual cards that can sell for thousands apiece.  But this is not the norm.)

The point of my post: don't waste your money.  Don't buy booster boxes of old sets.  If there's a set you like, pick up the singles.  You'll spend far less for equal enjoyment.

A secondary point: if you're an investor, you might think to buy some boxes now in hopes that their prices will skyrocket.  They will increase, almost definitely, but the percentage will vary, and you'd have to hold them for a long time.  And of course, you'd still need to find a buyer to realize the profit. Not to mention needing considerable storage space if you wanted to do this at scale.  It's possible, but I'd suggest there are better financial strategies out there.

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