Board State

It's not over till it's over. -Yogi Berra

Though Yogi's technically correct, in Magic, it's often possible to predict the game's outcome well in advance through examining "board state."

Board state is the state of the game in progress; it uses the following inputs from each player:

1. life total,
2. the nature and number of permanents on the battlefield,
3. the nature and number of cards in the graveyard,
4. the number of cards in hand,
5. the nature of cards in hand,
6. the type of deck (aggro, control, etc.)
7. the possible card options

The first four are known to all players (number three doesn't always matter- it depends on the deck, and whether or not it wants cards in the graveyard). Number five is partially known- each player knows their own hand but no other.  Number six is partially known at first- each player knows their own deck but no other- but is progressively revealed to all as cards are played and the game progresses.  Number seven is based on the format you play and the color(s) involved in the game- this one tells opponents what cards you might have.

Though each input is easily defined, determining board state involves a good deal of experience and judgment; it's impossible to develop a formula that a new player could apply.  Yet, seasoned players can tell at a glance how things are going- and, generally, who will win.  Let's look at some examples.  All are taken from games I played against the AI in Magic Arena.

In this first example, I have more life and permanents.  My opponent has more cards. I'm playing an aggro deck, which is likely apparent to my opponent at this point.  The unknown (to me) is the cards my opponent holds.  But the possible card options based on color (looks like mono-white, based on his lands in play) and format (this is standard) tells me that I will almost definitely win.  White has some spells that can neutralize my permanents, but only one card that would tilt the balance: Planar Cleansing, which requires six lands (he has four).

A look at the board state one turn later confirms that my victory is at hand.  He still has too few lands for a Planar Cleansing, and no other card could minimize my attack enough.  I will win (and I do).

This first example was straightforward- most people would peg me as likely victor.  But if I let my opponent get out six lands, and if they had a Planar Cleansing, the board state would flip immediately- I'd have nothing left, with too few cards in hand to do anything useful.  Had my opponent played that card, I'd have conceded immediately, knowing my prospect at victory was gone.

A second example.  Here, my opponent has more life, creatures, and cards in hand, but I have more overall permanents (including lands and enchantments), and I have a few cards in hand that may tilt things my way.  And I'm not sweating things, because I have a mill deck- my goal is not to reduce his life to 0, but to put his library (the face-down pile, upper right) into his graveyard.

A turn later, the life totals are even more in my opponent's favor, but note how diminished his library is.  I have some blockers, three enchantments to accelerate the milling effect, and more cards in hand (and some of them are quite nice).  The board state, all factors included, is in my favor.

On my turn, I play enough cards, and my victory is assured- his library is gone.  The next time he has to draw a card, he loses.

In a third example, my opponent has a slight edge in life, and permanents are about equal.  But I hold the edge- look how many cards are in my hand. 

A few turns later, things are still in my favor- with no cards left, my opponent is fully exposed.  If I had a way to 'wipe the board' (destroy all creatures), he'd be in a bad way.  Alas, I do!  A Time Wipe will take care of his creatures.

I play Time Wipe, and though we're both near 20 life, the game is likely mine.  If I were in his shoes, I'd concede.

One final example. Here, my opponent has more life and permanents.  But I still hold the edge- look at my cards in hand.  I can take control of one of his creatures with Connive/Concoct, and I have two of those.  So I'll take control of one this turn, and if I survive, repeat the process next turn.  It will be close, and will come down to the card(s) he will draw next turn.

Board state may be obvious from the above examples. The big takeaways:

- life total is important, but not the only factor. 

- the number/nature of cards in hand matter greatly, especially later in the game

- the type of deck is a big deal, too. 

The only way to develop a feel for board state is to play. A lot. In time, you'll start to predict how things will go- even early in the match- based on your experience. Though, wrapping up with Yogi's thoughts, you never know for certain. So conceding may make sense at times, but if there's even a small chance, I recommend staying in the game. Those improbable victories can be quite satisfying.