Standard, Stagnating

Brink of Madness card art

In my first post of the year I mentioned two current problems in Magic. Last time I looked at the first: Universes Beyond sets getting unhinged. Today I look at the second: how Standard is stagnating. 

Standard is stagnating; Wizards appears to be devoting less time and energy to the format. In terms of numbers of sets, Standard is actually bloating (more on that below), but the increase in sets does not correlate to a better environment.

I argue four factors have resulted in the stagnating state of Standard:

- increase in pace of releases

- changes to Standard legality duration

- thematic inconsistency due to elimination of blocks

- the rise of Universes Beyond

I cover each in turn below, then conclude looking at the impact in aggregate.

Increase in the Pace of Releases

We used to see four Standard-legal sets per year. We now see six or seven*. 

Changes to Standard Legality Duration

Sets legal in Standard used to max out at two years, and they would change every September: the four oldest sets would rotate out. At any given time, there would be 5-9 sets in Standard. The shortest would be in the format just 15 months; the longest 24 months. (I explain this more here and show a graphic here.) Then things changed.

In 2023, Wizards announced changes to Standard rotation. Sets could be in Standard for up to three years. Coupled with the increase of release pace, that puts us at quite a pace. There are currently 13 sets legal in Standard (most recent release first): 

• Avatar: The Last Airbender
• Marvel’s Spider-Man
• Edge of Eternities
• Final Fantasy
• Tarkir: Dragonstorm
• Aetherdrift
• Foundations
• Duskmourn: House of Horror
• Bloomburrow
• Outlaws of Thunder Junction
• Murders at Karlov Manor
• The Lost Caverns of Ixalan
• Wilds of Eldraine

They keep adjusting the rotation date, too; Standard rotates next on 1 January 2027. Since we're getting seven sets this year . . . we'll have 20 sets legal in Standard by December. Twenty. Then six will rotate and we'll still have a monster 14 sets in the format.

Thematic Inconsistency Due to Elimination of Blocks

Magic operated in the block format for years; I explain that more here. They went away from that model in 2018, though a few releases followed it unofficially through linked themes:

- Guilds of Ravnica, Ravnica Allegiance, and War of the Spark (2018-19)

- Innistrad: Midnight Hunt and Innistrad: Crimson Vow (2021)

- Dominaria United, Brothers' War, Phyrexia: All will be One, March of the Machine, Aftermath (2022-23)

Since 2023, though, it's been the wild west thematically, and things started to get weird. The list of current Standard-legal releases with their respective theme:

• Wilds of Eldraine: a riff on Grimm's Fairy Tales
• The Lost Caverns of Ixalan: return to the land of dinosaurs, merfolk, pirates, and vampires
• Murders at Karlov Manor: investigating murder
• Outlaws of Thunder Junction: the wild west
• Bloomburrow: woodland creatures
• Duskmourn: Eighties' horror films
• Foundations: core set
• Aetherdrift: Magic's homage to Mariokart
• Tarkir: Dragonstorm: dragons
• Final Fantasy: fantasy video game series
• Edge of Eternities: Magic goes to space
• Spider-man: comic book
• Avatar: kids' cartoon based on an Asian-inspired world

That is a motley mix indeed.

The Rise of Universes Beyond

I mentioned this last time; see there for more.

The Effects in Aggregate

There are now tons of sets in Standard, released at a much faster pace, with no thematic consistency between them. Some results:

- Wizards has less time to design/test a given release

- Players have less time do explore a given release

- Wizards has to choose if a given set should be consistent with itself (and true to 'its world,' if a UB set) or address some problems in Standard by releasing cards tailored to inject life and variety into the format. My impression: they largely choose the former.

In short, the above realities make the Standard metagame overwhelming for designers and players alike, encouraging players to explore other formats (like limited or Commander). Standard is left to rot.

--------

Enough with my concerns; this post and last helped me get it out of my system. There is time and a chance for Wizards to right things. And the cool thing about this game is that you can focus on the formats you do enjoy. I just miss a vibrant Standard.

*just stop already.

Universes Beyond, Unhinged

Horn of Greed, a preview from the summer 2026 Marvel set

Last time, I mentioned two concerns about where Magic is heading. Today I address the first: the explosion of Universes Beyond (UB) sets, the incorporation of external Intellectual Property (IP) into the game. 

Five years ago (February 2021), Wizards announced its foray into UB. A paragraph from that article bears highlighting:

That said, Universes Beyond cards will not be Standard legal. We strive to make Magic cards that are widely useful, but Universes Beyond will be above and, well, beyond our normal Standard releases. So nothing much is changing with our normal cadence of releases for Standard. This is purely a cool thing we're doing in addition to all the other cool things we're already doing.

That statement is no longer true; Wizards announced in October 2024 that UB sets would now be Standard legal. As I mentioned the other day, four of the seven releases this coming year are UB sets, and all are Standard legal. The "in addition to all the other cool things" has become "the main cool thing." And that, to me, is not cool to all.

I wrote about UB sets in 2023, and I mentioned there a feeling of dread. It appears my fears are coming to pass. Things have ramped up considerably; here is the history of UB releases so far, with Standard legal releases in italics:

2021:

- Dungeons & Dragons* (Adventures in Forgotten Realms)

2022:
- Warhammer 40K (Commander decks only)

- Dungeons & Dragons (Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's Gate; a set for Commander draft)

2023:
- The Lord of the Rings

- Dr. Who (Commander decks and collector booster packs only)

2024:
- Fallout (Commander decks and collector booster packs only)
- Assassin's Creed (small release; a starter deck, 7-card packs, and collector booster packs only)

2025:

- Final Fantasy
- Marvel's Spider-man

- Avatar: The Last Airbender

2026:

- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

- Marvel

- The Hobbit

- Star Trek

See what is happening? UB sets were initially what was intended: "one-offs" to be enjoyed in their own way. But now . . . we went from zero UB Standard legal sets (in 2022-24) to three (2025) to four (2026). It is taking over. 

What is driving the change? I think the answer is obvious: greed. Wizards wants to draw people in; that makes sense and is part of typical business practice. The way they're doing it is by selling out, in a sense: they're becoming less 'unique.' They had a strong in-world mythos; they are downplaying that. I think we're losing something along the way.

To be clear: I'm not wholly against UB sets. I think their D&D, Lord of the Rings, and Avatar sets were great. I'm against the dominance of UB sets at the expense of in-world releases. 

And I'm curious as to the nature of some UB releases, too: Avatar and TMNT are based on kids' cartoons, rated for ages 7+. Magic is inherently 13+. Younger kids can and do play, of course (mine have for years), but I'm wondering if the target is younger kids (trying to draw on the Pokemon market, I imagine) or adults who look nostalgically at those two properties. We'll see.

Another concern: some UB sets feel out of place due to their genre. Magic is inherently a fantasy game; sets like D&D, Lord of the Rings, and Final Fantasy mesh well. Avatar works. Spider-man feels strange to me, and Star Trek feels even weirder. These take the game away from a fantasy focus to more of a "can we absorb everything" feel, leading some online jokesters to speculate about what is coming in future years:

Time will tell if the UB focus is the future or a fad. Ultimately, the game will be driven by the dollars it brings in.

*the 2021 D&D set was Standard legal because it is owned by Wizards, so it is not an external IP.

Looking Ahead

Arcane Teachings card art

Happy New Year! What will 2026 bring in Magic, both corporately and personally?

Corporately

Wizards intends to continue its release pace, with seven sets in 2026. 

The total list is:

- Lorwyn Eclipsed (in-world set)

- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (universes beyond set)

- Secrets of Strixhaven (in-world set)

- Marvel Superheroes (universes beyond set)

- The Hobbit (universes beyond set)

- Reality Fracture (in-world set)

- Star Trek (universes beyond set)

Four universes beyond sets (in red above) to three in-world. Wizards continues to focus on other intellectual properties (IPs). I reflected on some ramifications last year, and those still hold. The bottom line: the game feels less like traditional Magic all the time (even as I acknowledge some IPs work very well in this game engine).

A new product I am excited about: a draft night box. This comes with 12 play boosters (suitable for a four-person draft), lands, and a collector booster (for the draft winner). I may get one of these per set and have some fun with friends.

Reminder: Standard rotation (which happened last summer) will not happen in 2026 as Wizards aligns it to the new year (1 January 2027). This, combined with the mix of in-world and UB sets, makes for some very strange possibilities (from a thematic perspective).

I have two concerns about the corporate state of the game: UB sets and Standard 'bloat.' More on those in the next two posts.

Personally

Collecting:

I don't see myself collecting a lot of new cards this year except for the TMNT and Hobbit sets. I am intrigued by Lorwin Eclipsed—I loved Lorwyn the first time around—but we'll see as they set gets previews. As always, I have a goal to minimize my collection more. I get rid of a bunch each year, honing down what I have to the things I enjoy and play the most. 

Building:

I want to build more Commander decks and cubes this year. I have two cubes now and want two more (Innistrad- and Lorwyn-themed). For Commander, I'd like a 'viable' but thematic and fun deck in each of the one-, two-, and three-color combinations.

Playing:

I'd love to play more across all formats (casual, standard, Commander, cube, sealed, draft, pauper, etc.), but especially Commander and cube.

To 2026!